A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
